SportPesa Mega Jackpot prediction
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
The SportPesa Mega Jackpot asks you to call the result of all 17 games on its list, picking 1, X or 2 for each. The games come from several leagues and are often spread over a few days. Here every match on the current list gets a home, draw and away probability from our model, a single pick, and the double that covers the two likeliest results.
Current Mega Jackpot: our numbers for every game
SportPesa Mega Jackpot #206
17 matches · first kick-off 30 October 2026, 21:00 EAT · coupon open
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Pick | Double |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Coventry City – Sunderland AFC · England · Premier League | 37% | 29% | 34% | 1 | 1 or 2 (71%) |
| 2. OGC Nice – Stade Rennais FC · France · Ligue 1 | 32% | 25% | 42% | 2 | 1 or 2 (75%) |
| 3. FC Lorient – Stade Brest 29 · France · Ligue 1 | 43% | 27% | 30% | 1 | 1 or 2 (73%) |
| 4. Albacete Balompie – CE Sabadell FC · Spain · LaLiga 2 | 33% | 31% | 36% | 2 | 1 or 2 (69%) |
| 5. Getafe CF – Sevilla FC · Spain · LaLiga | 33% | 32% | 36% | 2 | 1 or 2 (68%) |
| 6. SS Arezzo – Ascoli Calcio 1898 · Italy · Serie B | 22% | 22% | 56% | 2 | X or 2 (78%) |
| 7. Union Berlin – 1. FC Cologne · Germany · Bundesliga | 40% | 26% | 33% | 1 | 1 or 2 (74%) |
| 8. AD Ceuta – Sporting Gijon · Spain · LaLiga 2 | 34% | 26% | 40% | 2 | 1 or 2 (74%) |
| 9. Lausanne-Sport – FC Thun · Switzerland · Swiss Super League | 33% | 25% | 42% | 2 | 1 or 2 (75%) |
| 10. Panaitolikos Agrinio – OFI Crete · Greece · Super League Greece | 29% | 29% | 41% | 2 | X or 2 (71%) |
| 11. Paris FC – AS Monaco · France · Ligue 1 | 37% | 26% | 36% | 1 | 1 or 2 (74%) |
| 12. Liverpool FC – Arsenal FC · England · Premier League | 28% | 27% | 45% | 2 | 1 or 2 (73%) |
| 13. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Osijek · Croatia · Croatian HNL | 39% | 28% | 33% | 1 | 1 or 2 (72%) |
| 14. US Lecce – Genoa CFC · Italy · Serie A | 33% | 32% | 36% | 2 | 1 or 2 (68%) |
| 15. Elche CF – Valencia CF · Spain · LaLiga | 44% | 27% | 29% | 1 | 1 or 2 (73%) |
| 16. Maritimo Madeira – Santa Clara Azores · Portugal · Primeira Liga | 29% | 30% | 42% | 2 | X or 2 (71%) |
| 17. Vaalerenga IF – Tromsoe IL · Norway · Eliteserien | 37% | 24% | 38% | 2 | 1 or 2 (76%) |
On average, picks like these get about 6.9 of the 17 matches right. All 17 land together about once in 4.6 million rounds, which is why the top prize is so large. Covering the 3 least certain matches (numbers 4, 5, 14) with a double raises that to about once in 660,000.
How to read the jackpot table
- 1, X, 2: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win after 90 minutes. The three add up to 100%. The likeliest result is in bold.
- Pick: the outcome with the highest probability in that match.
- Double: the two results that together are most likely, with their combined chance. This can be 1 or 2, when both sides are capable of winning but a draw looks least likely.
- Result: shown once the match has been played, with a mark for whether the pick landed.
The numbers keep updating until the first match of the round kicks off. From that moment the table is frozen: picks are not changed after the fact, and the result column fills in as the games finish.
Why the jackpot is so hard to win
Every match has three possible results, so a 17-game list has 3 to the power of 17 combinations: about 129 million. Picking the likeliest result each time helps, but jackpot lists usually include many close games where even the favourite sits below 50%.
A rough illustration: if each of your 17 picks had a 50% chance, all of them together would land about once in 131,000 rounds. Most rounds contain a few clearer favourites and several near coin-flips, and the summary under the table gives the model's own estimate for the current list, plus how much that improves if you use doubles on the least certain games.
That is why a jackpot ticket should be a small, fixed amount that you are happy to lose. It is a long shot by design, not a plan to make money.
Using doubles sensibly
A double on a match where the pick is weak lifts your chance on that game a lot; a double on a strong favourite adds very little. If your ticket allows doubles, the least certain matches are where they do the most work. Each double also multiplies the number of lines you pay for, so check the cost before adding them.
What the model knows and does not know
The probabilities come from a Dixon–Coles model that rates each team's attack and defence from about three seasons of results, with every league's scoring level and home advantage. Where bookmaker odds are in our data, the result numbers are blended half and half with the margin-free price. The model does not see injuries, line-ups, rotation or weather, and jackpot lists often include lower divisions where late team news matters. The method in full is on how our predictions are made.
How we pick and how the record works
The pick is simply the most probable outcome, with no threshold, because a jackpot needs a call on every game. That is different from our 1X2 tips, which only appear when a result reaches 55%. Several of the same fixtures often show up on today's predictions or tomorrow's predictions, where you can compare them with the goals markets.
Past rounds are counted below by how many picks landed. Our single-match tips have their own track record.
Our Mega Jackpot picks in past rounds
The record starts once the first round we priced has been played.
PitchMaths is independent and has no link to the jackpot operator. Jackpots are for adults aged 18+ only, and any bet can lose; stake only what you can spare.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
When does the Mega Jackpot prediction appear?
As soon as the new list is published and in our data, usually a few days before the first match. The probabilities update with each data refresh until the first kick-off, then they are frozen so the result can be checked fairly.
Can a Mega Jackpot prediction be accurate on all 17 games?
It can happen, but very rarely. Even when every pick is the likeliest outcome of its match, the chance that all 17 land together is tiny. The summary under the table says roughly how often a full set of picks like these would come in.
What is a double in a jackpot prediction?
It is the two results that together have the best chance in a match, for example 1 or X. Covering a match with a double raises your chance on that game, but it multiplies the number of combinations on your ticket.
Are these free Mega Jackpot predictions?
Yes, everything on PitchMaths is free. We are not linked to SportPesa and do not sell jackpot tips. The numbers come from the same model that rates every other match on the site.
What does "from the odds" mean next to a match?
It marks a match with a club our model does not rate yet. For that game the probabilities are the jackpot operator's own prices with the margin removed, not a model forecast, and we say so in the table.