Correct score prediction
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
A correct score bet pays well because it is hard to win: you need the exact final score after 90 minutes, not just the winner. Our model is built around this very question. It calculates the chance of every scoreline in a match, from 0-0 upwards, and every other market on PitchMaths is added up from those same numbers. Here you see the top of that list for each rated fixture, with the real probability next to it.
Correct score predictions today
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors – Independiente RivadaviaArgentine Liga Profesional | 1-0 (13.3%)1-1 12.4% · 2-0 10.8% | 1.6 – 0.9 | 1-0 | |
| Ceara – Goias Esporte ClubeBrasileirão Série B | 0-0 (15.5%)1-0 14.8% · 1-1 14.0% | 1.0 – 0.9 | 0-2 | |
| Cucuta Deportivo – Aguilas DoradasColombian Primera A | 1-1 (12.8%)1-0 8.8% · 0-1 8.5% | 1.4 – 1.3 | 0-2 | |
| Boyaca Chico – Junior de BarranquillaColombian Primera A | 0-1 (13.0%)1-1 12.5% · 0-2 10.4% | 0.9 – 1.5 | 1-1 | |
| Kakamega Homeboyz – Gor MahiaKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (13.7%)0-1 12.6% · 0-0 11.1% | 1.0 – 1.2 | – | |
| Bandari – Posta RangersKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (21.4%)1-0 19.1% · 1-1 12.8% | 0.9 – 0.6 | – | |
| KCB – Mombasa UnitedKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (20.1%)1-0 16.9% · 0-1 14.0% | 0.9 – 0.7 | – | |
| APS Bomet – 3KKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (14.0%)0-0 13.6% · 1-0 13.5% | 1.1 – 1.0 | – | |
| Murang'a Seal – Nairobi UnitedKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (12.9%)0-1 9.5% · 1-2 8.6% | 1.2 – 1.4 | – | |
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | 0-2 (16.8%)0-1 14.9% · 0-3 12.4% | 0.5 – 2.2 | – | |
| Entebbe UPPC – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 1-0 (21.3%)0-0 20.1% · 2-0 12.1% | 1.1 – 0.5 | – | |
| Kitara – BULUganda Premier League | 1-0 (14.4%)1-1 13.2% · 0-0 11.5% | 1.4 – 0.8 | – | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | 0-1 (19.8%)0-2 16.2% · 0-0 12.9% | 0.5 – 1.6 | – | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 1-0 (20.8%)2-0 17.9% · 0-0 12.8% | 1.7 – 0.4 | – | |
| Roan United – ZESCO UnitedZambia Super League | 0-0 (15.9%)1-0 15.2% · 1-1 13.9% | 1.0 – 0.8 | – | |
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (19.3%)0-1 17.5% · 1-1 13.4% | 0.7 – 1.0 | – | |
| National Bank of Egypt – Al MasryEgyptian Premier League | 1-1 (13.2%)0-1 10.8% · 1-0 8.8% | 1.1 – 1.4 | – | |
| Radnicki – Zeleznicar PancevoSerbian SuperLiga | 1-1 (14.1%)0-0 13.2% · 0-1 12.8% | 1.0 – 1.1 | – | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | 2-0 (18.4%)1-0 16.8% · 3-0 13.3% | 2.2 – 0.4 | – | |
| Oulu – Vaasan PalloseuraVeikkausliiga | 1-1 (13.4%)1-0 11.6% · 0-0 9.6% | 1.3 – 1.1 | – | |
| ADT Tarma – Deportivo MoqueguaPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 (17.4%)0-0 14.2% · 1-1 12.7% | 1.3 – 0.7 | – | |
| Radnicki Nis – PartizanSerbian SuperLiga | 1-1 (11.7%)1-2 9.6% · 0-1 9.2% | 1.2 – 1.7 | – | |
| Zamalek – El MokawloonEgyptian Premier League | 1-0 (21.1%)0-0 19.2% · 2-0 12.4% | 1.1 – 0.5 | – | |
| Trencin – Slovan BratislavaSlovak Super League | 0-2 (10.6%)1-2 9.9% · 1-1 9.5% | 0.9 – 2.2 | – | |
| Kosice – DACSlovak Super League | 1-2 (7.9%)1-3 7.6% · 2-2 5.7% | 1.4 – 2.9 | – | |
| AC Milan – BolognaSerie A | 1-1 (13.1%)1-0 12.5% · 0-0 9.7% | 1.4 – 1.0 | – | |
| Venezia – InterSerie A | 0-2 (10.2%)1-2 9.4% · 0-3 8.5% | 0.9 – 2.5 | – | |
| Parma – UdineseSerie A | 1-1 (13.9%)0-1 13.7% · 0-0 13.2% | 0.9 – 1.1 | – | |
| Pisa – PalermoSerie B | 1-1 (12.0%)1-2 9.2% · 0-1 8.7% | 1.3 – 1.6 | – | |
| Degerfors – Vasteras SKAllsvenskan | 1-1 (12.9%)0-1 11.8% · 1-2 9.2% | 1.0 – 1.5 | – | |
| Goteborg – Djurgårdens IFAllsvenskan | 1-1 (11.0%)0-1 10.0% · 1-2 9.9% | 1.0 – 1.9 | – | |
| Brommapojkarna – BK HäckenAllsvenskan | 1-1 (10.3%)1-2 9.0% · 2-1 7.4% | 1.5 – 1.8 | – | |
| Halmstads – MalmoAllsvenskan | 0-1 (14.9%)0-2 12.3% · 1-1 11.8% | 0.7 – 1.6 | – | |
| Coastal Union – Kagera SugarTanzanian Premier League | 1-0 (14.3%)2-0 12.2% · 1-1 11.8% | 1.6 – 0.8 | – | |
| Cajamarca – Universidad Tecnica de CajamarcaPeruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 (9.6%)1-1 9.1% · 2-0 7.9% | 2.2 – 1.2 | – | |
| Juve Stabia – Hellas VeronaSerie B | 1-1 (13.9%)1-0 12.6% · 0-0 12.0% | 1.1 – 1.0 | – | |
| Carrarese – A.S.D. Atletico ArezzoSerie B | 1-1 (10.7%)2-0 10.4% · 1-0 10.4% | 1.9 – 1.0 | – | |
| Carlisle United – Harrogate TownNational League | 1-1 (11.1%)2-1 9.6% · 1-0 8.1% | 1.8 – 1.2 | – | |
| Sutton United – Aldershot TownNational League | 1-1 (12.4%)2-1 8.5% · 1-0 8.3% | 1.4 – 1.4 | – | |
| Forest Green Rovers – EastleighNational League | 2-1 (9.9%)1-1 9.8% · 2-0 9.0% | 2.1 – 1.1 | – | |
| Monza – NapoliSerie A | 1-1 (11.0%)1-2 9.9% · 0-1 9.9% | 1.0 – 1.9 | – | |
| Genoa CFC – JuventusSerie A | 0-1 (14.9%)1-1 12.2% · 0-2 11.8% | 0.8 – 1.5 | – | |
| Aberdeen – FalkirkScottish Premiership | 1-1 (13.2%)1-0 9.9% · 0-1 9.2% | 1.3 – 1.2 | – | |
| Dundee – KilmarnockScottish Premiership | 1-1 (10.5%)2-1 9.7% · 2-0 7.8% | 1.9 – 1.2 | – | |
| Celtic – Dundee UnitedScottish Premiership | 2-0 (10.5%)3-0 9.4% · 2-1 8.9% | 2.7 – 0.8 | – | |
| St. Johnstone – MotherwellScottish Premiership | 1-1 (13.0%)1-0 10.2% · 2-1 8.8% | 1.4 – 1.2 | – | |
| St. Mirren – HibernianScottish Premiership | 1-1 (13.4%)0-1 12.8% · 0-0 10.4% | 1.0 – 1.4 | – | |
| Heart of Midlothian – RangersScottish Premiership | 1-1 (11.9%)2-1 8.6% · 1-2 8.2% | 1.5 – 1.4 | – | |
| Alianza Atletico Sullana – Deportivo GarcilasoPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 (12.8%)1-0 9.3% · 2-1 8.7% | 1.4 – 1.2 | – |
Today's strongest correct score tips with fair odds
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandari – Posta RangersKenyan Premier League | 0-0 | 21% | 4.67 | Pending | |
| Entebbe UPPC – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 1-0 | 21% | 4.69 | Pending | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 1-0 | 21% | 4.81 | Pending | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | 0-1 | 20% | 5.06 | Pending | |
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | 17% | 5.96 | Pending | |
| Kitara – BULUganda Premier League | 1-0 | 14% | 6.93 | Pending | |
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | 0-0 | 19% | 5.17 | Pending | |
| Radnicki – Zeleznicar PancevoSerbian SuperLiga | 1-1 | 14% | 7.11 | Pending | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | 18% | 5.42 | Pending | |
| ADT Tarma – Deportivo MoqueguaPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | 17% | 5.76 | Pending | |
| Zamalek – El MokawloonEgyptian Premier League | 1-0 | 21% | 4.74 | Pending | |
| Parma – UdineseSerie A | 1-1 | 14% | 7.17 | Pending | |
| Halmstads – MalmoAllsvenskan | 0-1 | 15% | 6.73 | Pending | |
| Coastal Union – Kagera SugarTanzanian Premier League | 1-0 | 14% | 6.99 | Pending | |
| Genoa CFC – JuventusSerie A | 0-1 | 15% | 6.72 | Pending |
Correct score predictions tomorrow
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A | 2-0 (10.7%)1-1 10.5% · 1-0 10.5% | 2.0 – 0.9 | – | |
| Fluminense – Sport Club InternacionalBrasileirão Série A | 1-0 (12.8%)1-1 11.6% · 2-0 11.4% | 1.7 – 0.8 | – | |
| Santos – Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasBrasileirão Série A | 1-1 (12.5%)0-1 11.6% · 0-2 9.5% | 1.0 – 1.6 | – | |
| Once Caldas – Alianza ValleduparColombian Primera A | 1-0 (13.6%)2-0 12.1% · 1-1 11.4% | 1.7 – 0.8 | – | |
| Universidad Catolica Santiago – Audax ItalianoChilean Primera División | 2-1 (9.9%)1-1 9.8% · 2-0 9.8% | 2.1 – 1.0 | – | |
| New England Revolution – New York Red BullsMLS | 1-1 (12.0%)1-0 10.8% · 2-1 9.7% | 1.7 – 1.0 | – | |
| Inter Miami – CincinnatiMLS | 3-1 (6.9%)2-1 6.1% · 4-1 5.8% | 3.4 – 1.7 | – | |
| New York City – Atlanta UnitedMLS | 1-0 (12.0%)1-1 11.9% · 2-0 10.5% | 1.7 – 0.9 | – | |
| Toronto – D.C. UnitedMLS | 1-1 (11.8%)1-0 10.1% · 2-1 9.7% | 1.7 – 1.1 | – | |
| Charlotte – MontrealMLS | 2-0 (11.0%)1-0 10.3% · 1-1 10.0% | 2.0 – 0.9 | – | |
| Club Cienciano Cusco – Atletico GrauPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 (13.7%)1-1 12.1% · 2-0 11.4% | 1.6 – 0.8 | – | |
| Clube do Remo – Botafogo de Futebol e RegatasBrasileirão Série A | 1-1 (12.9%)1-0 9.3% · 0-1 8.7% | 1.4 – 1.3 | – | |
| Bahia – Sao PauloBrasileirão Série A | 1-0 (13.7%)1-1 13.1% · 0-0 10.5% | 1.4 – 0.9 | – | |
| Chicago Fire – Orlando CityMLS | 2-1 (7.8%)2-2 6.8% · 3-1 6.6% | 2.5 – 1.7 | – | |
| Nashville – Philadelphia UnionMLS | 1-1 (10.6%)2-1 10.0% · 2-0 9.9% | 2.0 – 1.0 | – | |
| Minnesota United – Sporting Kansas CityMLS | 2-1 (8.9%)3-1 7.9% · 2-0 7.3% | 2.6 – 1.2 | – | |
| Dallas – Columbus CrewMLS | 1-1 (10.5%)2-1 9.3% · 1-2 7.0% | 1.9 – 1.4 | – | |
| Austin – Real Salt LakeMLS | 1-1 (12.7%)1-0 8.7% · 2-1 8.5% | 1.4 – 1.3 | – | |
| St. Louis City – Portland TimbersMLS | 2-1 (9.4%)1-1 9.0% · 2-0 6.9% | 2.2 – 1.4 | – | |
| Internacional de Bogota – Independiente MedellinColombian Primera A | 1-1 (12.3%)1-2 9.1% · 0-1 9.0% | 1.2 – 1.5 | – | |
| San Jose Earthquakes – Colorado RapidsMLS | 1-1 (12.4%)1-0 10.0% · 2-1 9.4% | 1.6 – 1.1 | – | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps – San DiegoMLS | 2-1 (9.7%)1-1 8.8% · 2-0 8.6% | 2.3 – 1.1 | – | |
| Seattle Sounders – Houston DynamoMLS | 1-1 (13.5%)1-0 12.8% · 0-0 10.7% | 1.3 – 1.0 | – | |
| Club America – TijuanaLiga MX | 1-1 (10.6%)2-1 9.8% · 2-0 8.1% | 1.9 – 1.2 | – | |
| Shabana – Migori YouthKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (29.0%)1-0 19.0% · 0-1 15.9% | 0.7 – 0.6 | – | |
| Mathare United – TuskerKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (20.8%)0-1 16.5% · 1-0 14.8% | 0.8 – 0.8 | – | |
| Pamba Jiji – Singida Black StarsTanzanian Premier League | 1-1 (12.7%)0-1 9.1% · 1-2 8.7% | 1.3 – 1.4 | – | |
| TRA United – Geita GoldTanzanian Premier League | 1-0 (14.5%)1-1 12.5% · 2-0 11.2% | 1.5 – 0.8 | – | |
| Kenya Police – Ulinzi StarsKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (21.0%)1-0 19.9% · 1-1 12.5% | 1.0 – 0.6 | – | |
| Modern Sport – Al AhlyEgyptian Premier League | 0-2 (13.1%)0-1 12.4% · 1-1 9.6% | 0.7 – 2.1 | – | |
| Al-Khaleej – Al Hazem RassSaudi Pro League | 1-1 (13.4%)1-0 9.9% · 0-1 9.8% | 1.2 – 1.2 | – | |
| Inter Turku – HJKVeikkausliiga | 1-1 (12.8%)1-0 10.6% · 2-1 9.2% | 1.5 – 1.1 | – | |
| Namungo – Polisi TanzaniaTanzanian Premier League | 1-1 (13.7%)1-0 12.8% · 0-0 11.1% | 1.2 – 1.0 | – | |
| Pyramids – Wadi DeglaEgyptian Premier League | 1-0 (14.5%)2-0 14.5% · 1-1 9.7% | 1.9 – 0.6 | – | |
| KuPS – GnistanVeikkausliiga | 1-1 (10.9%)2-1 9.9% · 1-0 9.7% | 1.9 – 1.0 | – | |
| Frosinone – US LecceSerie A | 1-1 (12.9%)1-0 11.9% · 2-0 9.2% | 1.5 – 1.0 | – | |
| Hammarby – SiriusAllsvenskan | 1-1 (10.0%)2-1 9.7% · 2-0 7.8% | 2.0 – 1.2 | – | |
| Al Nassr – Al KholoodSaudi Pro League | 3-0 (9.6%)2-0 9.6% · 3-1 8.1% | 3.0 – 0.8 | – | |
| Al-Riyadh – Al-QadisiyahSaudi Pro League | 0-2 (9.4%)0-3 9.4% · 1-2 8.2% | 0.9 – 3.0 | – | |
| Deportivo Los Chankas – CuscoPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 (12.3%)1-2 8.5% · 2-1 8.2% | 1.4 – 1.4 | – | |
| Kalmar – GAISAllsvenskan | 0-1 (15.0%)1-1 13.0% · 0-0 11.8% | 0.8 – 1.4 | – | |
| Orgryte – MjallbyAllsvenskan | 1-1 (11.4%)1-2 9.2% · 0-1 7.7% | 1.3 – 1.7 | – | |
| Amiens – ThionvilleLigue 3 | 1-1 (11.8%)2-1 9.2% · 1-0 8.2% | 1.6 – 1.3 | – | |
| Fiorentina – AtalantaSerie A | 1-1 (12.4%)0-1 10.1% · 1-2 9.4% | 1.1 – 1.6 | – | |
| Sporting Cristal – Alianza LimaPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 (12.5%)2-1 8.5% · 1-0 8.3% | 1.4 – 1.4 | – |
Why even the best scoreline is a long shot
Football produces a wide spread of results. A match between two average sides can finish 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1 or a dozen other ways, and each of them takes a slice of the total. In practice the single likeliest score is usually rated at around 10% to 15%, and the three likeliest together tend to cover only about a third of what can happen.
That is why bookmakers pay high odds on correct score and why a run of misses is normal. A tip rated 12% has fair odds of about 8.3; it should lose roughly seven times out of eight. If you play correct score, use stakes small enough that a long losing run does not hurt.
How the scorelines are calculated
For every match, the model estimates how many goals each side is likely to score, based on its attack rating, the opponent's defence rating, the competition's usual scoring level and home advantage. Those two expected-goal figures go into a Poisson calculation that gives the chance of 0, 1, 2, 3 or more goals for each team. Pairing them gives every possible final score.
The Dixon–Coles adjustment then nudges the low scores. Plain Poisson treats the two teams as if they had nothing to do with each other, which tends to misjudge 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1. The adjustment corrects that, which is why draws such as 1-1 often top the list in even contests.
Correct score is always the model's own number. Unlike the match result or over 2.5, it is not blended with bookmaker odds.
Reading the tables
- Correct score: the most likely scoreline with its probability, followed by the second and third choices in smaller type.
- Expected goals: the model's goal expectation for home and away. A 2.1 – 0.7 line points to a home side that should score more than once; 1.1 – 1.0 points to a tight game.
- Result: the final score once the match is over.
The tips table repeats the top scoreline for the matches where it carries the most weight, with fair odds (1 ÷ probability) and the bookmaker's price where we have one. A score is listed for every rated match, with no minimum probability, so it is a reference, not a signal that the bet is good.
What shifts a scoreline
Because the model reads only past scores, it cannot react to a striker's injury, a red card suspension or a coach who sets up to defend. Low-scoring weather, a heavy pitch or a dead-rubber fixture can all pull a game towards 0-0 or 1-0. A team chasing the title or fighting relegation late in a season may take more risks than its ratings suggest. Check the news before using any of these numbers.
How we pick and where the record is
The scorelines come from the same model as every tip on the site, explained step by step on how our predictions are made. Correct score tips are settled automatically after 90 minutes and counted on their own, outside the headline track record, because their low hit rate would drown out the other markets.
If you prefer a market where the model's percentages are much higher, try over 2.5 goals or both teams to score. For a full day of tips, start from today's predictions.
Correct score tips: the last 30 days
No tip of this market has been settled in this period yet.
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Betting is for adults aged 18+. Correct score is the riskiest market on the site: any bet can lose, and this one usually does.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
Can a correct score prediction ever be certain?
No. In a typical match the likeliest scoreline is rated only about 10% to 15%, so it misses far more often than it lands. Anyone selling a correct score as certain is selling something the numbers cannot support. Any bet can lose, and this one loses most of the time.
Is there a two correct score method that works?
Covering two scorelines in one match roughly doubles your chance compared with one score, but you pay two stakes. The tables show the second and third likeliest scores beside the first, so you can see how much the extra score adds before deciding.
How likely is a 3-0 correct score?
For most matches the model rates 3-0 at a few percent. It climbs only when a strong favourite with a sharp attack meets a weak defence, and even then it rarely passes one chance in ten.
Why is 1-1 so often the top correct score?
In evenly matched games both teams' expected goals sit close to one, and 1-1 is the scoreline where those two expectations meet. Dixon–Coles also corrects the plain Poisson method, which tends to underrate draws such as 0-0 and 1-1.
Do you have correct score predictions for tomorrow?
Yes, the second table on this page lists tomorrow's rated fixtures with their likeliest scorelines. They are recalculated at each data refresh until kick-off.