Draw prediction for today's matches
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
The draw is the result most bettors overlook and the one bookmakers usually price the longest. It is also the hardest to call: even between two evenly matched teams, the model seldom puts the chance of a level score at full time above one in three. This page lists the rare matches where our model thinks an X is a realistic bet, today, tomorrow and over the next seven days.
Draw tips today
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | Draw | 34% | 2.96 | 2.75 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Draw tips tomorrow
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United – TuskerKenyan Premier League | Draw | 35% | 2.89 | 2.72 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Every draw tip for the next seven days
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | Draw | 34% | 2.96 | 2.75 | Pending | |
| Mathare United – TuskerKenyan Premier League | Draw | 35% | 2.89 | 2.72 | Pending | |
| Al Draih – NeomSaudi Pro League | Draw | 32% | 3.13 | 3.42 | Pending | |
| Levyy Bereg Kyiv – Bukovyna ChernivtsiUkrainian Premier League | Draw | 33% | 3.01 | 3.50 | Pending | |
| Veres Rivne – Chornomorets OdesaUkrainian Premier League | Draw | 32% | 3.10 | 3.42 | Pending | |
| BUL – Entebbe UPPCUganda Premier League | Draw | 37% | 2.72 | – | Pending | |
| Abu Qair Semad – Ghazl El MahallaEgyptian Premier League | Draw | 37% | 2.70 | 2.58 | Pending | |
| Delfin – Deportivo CuencaEcuadorian Serie A | Draw | 32% | 3.12 | 3.08 | Pending | |
| Petrojet – SmouhaEgyptian Premier League | Draw | 32% | 3.11 | 2.75 | Pending | |
| Albacete Balompie – SabadellLaLiga 2 | Draw | 31% | 3.18 | 3.19 | Pending | |
| Vila Nova – Esporte Clube JuventudeBrasileirão Série B | Draw | 31% | 3.21 | 2.91 | Pending | |
| LNZ – KharkivUkrainian Premier League | Draw | 34% | 2.95 | 3.15 | Pending | |
| Getafe – SevillaLaLiga | Draw | 32% | 3.16 | 3.13 | Pending | |
| US Lecce – Genoa CFCSerie A | Draw | 32% | 3.17 | 3.22 | Pending | |
| Mashujaa – Pamba JijiTanzanian Premier League | Draw | 33% | 3.02 | – | Pending | |
| BUL – VillaUganda Premier League | Draw | 31% | 3.18 | – | Pending | |
| Northampton Town – Oldham AthleticEFL League Two | Draw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.08 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
What it takes for a match to get a draw tip
Two conditions must hold together. The model's draw probability has to be at least 31%, and the home and away win chances have to sit within 12 percentage points of each other. The second rule stops the site from tipping a draw in a match that has a clear favourite, where the X is only a side issue.
A match rated 34% home, 33% draw and 33% away fits both rules. A match rated 45% home, 31% draw and 24% away does not, because the gap between home and away is 21 points. Teams with fewer than eight matches in our data get no tip at all.
Why draws are so hard to predict
Most matches have a likeliest result that is a home win or an away win. The draw is squeezed in between: it needs the two teams to score exactly the same number of goals, and a single late goal ruins it. Even in the tightest contests, the model rarely rates a draw much above 35%.
That is why a draw tip that lands one time in three is doing its job. If you expect draws to come in more often than that, you will think a working method has failed after a normal losing run.
Which matches lean towards the X
The model works out the chance of every scoreline and adds up the level ones: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and so on. Draws grow more likely when:
- the teams are close in quality, so neither side's attack clearly beats the other's defence;
- both sides score little, because 0-0 and 1-1 carry most of the draw probability, and a low expected goal total makes them likelier;
- the competition itself is low-scoring, as each league has its own scoring level in the model.
What the model does not see
- A point is enough. A side that only needs a draw to stay up or go through may play for it. The ratings know nothing about the table's situation.
- Late team news. A missing striker on one side can tilt a balanced match.
- Weather and pitch. Heavy rain or a poor surface tends to mean fewer chances, which helps the X.
- Tired legs. A team in its third match of the week often settles for a point on the road.
Where the bookmaker's odds are in our data, the match result probabilities are blended half and half with the margin-free price, which brings in some of this team news indirectly.
Draw odds and fair odds
Fair odds equal 1 ÷ probability, so a 31% draw is worth about 3.23 and a 35% draw about 2.86. If the price offered is higher than the fair figure, the bet pays more than the model thinks it should; if lower, it pays less.
How we pick
A Dixon–Coles model rates each team's attack and defence from roughly three seasons of scores, and the Dixon–Coles adjustment matters here: it corrects plain Poisson where it gets low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 wrong, which are the draws themselves. The full method is on how our predictions are made.
If you want to cover the draw without betting on it alone, look at double chance or read how draw no bet refunds your stake on an X. The correct score page shows which level scores are likeliest, and the full home, draw and away picture is on 1X2 tips.
Our settled record, last 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
You must be 18+ to bet. A draw at 33% loses two times in three: stake small and expect losing runs.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code MEGAE4ZTR
Frequently asked questions
How many draw tips are there on a normal day?
Very few, often one or two and sometimes none. A draw is tipped only when it reaches 31% and the two sides are within 12 percentage points of each other. On a busy weekend there are more, simply because there are more matches.
Can I combine 4 draws in one slip?
You can, but the numbers are harsh. If each draw has a 33% chance, all four land together about once in 85 tries, roughly 1.2%. The odds can look tempting; the chance of the whole slip coming in is very small.
Is a single draw tip better than a multi?
A single draw lands about as often as its percentage says, a third of the time for a 33% tip. Every extra leg multiplies the risk. If you bet draws at all, singles with small stakes are the sober way to do it.
Can a draw ever be certain?
No. Even when two sides look identical on paper, the model gives the draw only around a third, so two times in three it does not come. Treat any page that sells certain draws with suspicion. Every bet can lose.
What makes a good draw prediction site?
One that prints a probability next to each pick, explains how it is calculated and keeps a record of every tip, including the losers. Ours is on the results page; judge it over many weeks, not a few days.
Does FT draw mean the score after extra time?
No. FT means full time, the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A cup tie that is level after 90 minutes counts as a draw even if a team wins it later in extra time or on penalties.