Champions League predictions for this week
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
The Champions League brings together the strongest clubs from across Europe, often against opponents they have never met in a league. That is a harder job for any prediction model than a domestic round, and this page shows how ours handles it: every UCL fixture in the next seven days with home, draw and away chances, the tips that clear our thresholds, and the league phase table.
UCL fixtures and 1X2 chances, next seven days
| Kick-off | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray – VfB Stuttgart | 45% | 23% | 31% | Galatasaray to win | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP | 33% | 26% | 42% | Sporting CP to win | |
| Feyenoord – Inter | 29% | 22% | 49% | Inter to win | |
| Man United – Roma | 45% | 24% | 31% | Man United to win | |
| Bodø/Glimt – Lille | 53% | 24% | 23% | Bodø/Glimt to win | |
| LASK – Slovan Bratislava | 64% | 20% | 16% | LASK to win | |
| Villarreal – PSG | 22% | 21% | 57% | PSG to win | |
| Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich | 31% | 22% | 47% | Bayern Munich to win | |
| Barcelona – Aston Villa | 69% | 16% | 15% | Barcelona to win |
Champions League match result tips
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona – Aston Villa | Barcelona to win | 69% | 1.45 | 1.27 | Pending | |
| LASK – Slovan Bratislava | LASK to win | 64% | 1.56 | 1.50 | Pending | |
| Villarreal – PSG | PSG to win | 57% | 1.76 | 1.65 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Champions League over/under 2.5 goals tips
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray – VfB Stuttgart | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | 1.43 | Pending | |
| Barcelona – Aston Villa | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | 1.21 | Pending | |
| Villarreal – PSG | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | 1.36 | Pending | |
| Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | 1.39 | Pending | |
| Feyenoord – Inter | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | 1.42 | Pending | |
| LASK – Slovan Bratislava | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | 1.46 | Pending | |
| Man United – Roma | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 | 1.55 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Champions League both teams to score tips
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray – VfB Stuttgart | Both teams to score: Yes | 64% | 1.56 | 1.36 | Pending | |
| Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich | Both teams to score: Yes | 65% | 1.53 | 1.36 | Pending | |
| Villarreal – PSG | Both teams to score: Yes | 64% | 1.56 | 1.40 | Pending | |
| Feyenoord – Inter | Both teams to score: Yes | 64% | 1.57 | 1.43 | Pending | |
| Barcelona – Aston Villa | Both teams to score: Yes | 63% | 1.58 | 1.48 | Pending | |
| Man United – Roma | Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.62 | 1.44 | Pending | |
| Bodø/Glimt – Lille | Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.68 | 1.45 | Pending | |
| LASK – Slovan Bratislava | Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.71 | 1.58 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Likeliest Champions League scores this week
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray – VfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (9.6%)2-1 9.1% · 1-2 6.9% | 2.0 – 1.5 | – | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CPUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (12.5%)1-0 8.7% · 2-1 8.7% | 1.4 – 1.3 | – | |
| Feyenoord – InterUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (8.8%)1-2 8.1% · 2-1 7.6% | 1.8 – 1.9 | – | |
| Man United – RomaUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (10.3%)2-1 9.3% · 1-2 7.0% | 1.9 – 1.4 | – | |
| Bodø/Glimt – LilleUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (11.1%)2-1 9.8% · 1-0 9.3% | 1.8 – 1.1 | – | |
| LASK – Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League | 2-1 (9.5%)1-1 8.4% · 2-0 8.0% | 2.4 – 1.2 | – | |
| Villarreal – PSGUEFA Champions League | 1-2 (8.8%)1-1 8.1% · 2-2 6.7% | 1.5 – 2.3 | – | |
| Atlético Madrid – Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League | 1-1 (8.5%)1-2 8.3% · 2-2 7.2% | 1.7 – 2.0 | – | |
| Barcelona – Aston VillaUEFA Champions League | 2-1 (8.1%)3-1 7.2% · 1-1 6.4% | 2.6 – 1.6 | – |
How the model rates clubs from different leagues
Inside one league, ratings come from clubs playing each other twice a season. Across leagues they need a bridge, and European nights provide it: when a Dutch side meets an Italian one, the result tells the model how the two leagues compare. Ratings are fitted on finished matches from roughly the last three seasons, with recent ones counting most, so a club's domestic form and its European results feed the same numbers.
The UEFA club competitions share one scoring level and one home advantage. A Champions League night therefore does not inherit the home edge of the host's own league.
Reading the tables
Match nights fall mostly on Tuesday and Wednesday, which means late evening in East Africa. Times are shown in EAT and switch to your own clock in the browser; Nigeria is two hours behind EAT, Ghana three. The fixtures table lists every match with its 1/X/2 chances; the tips tables keep only the matches that clear a threshold.
The league phase table
All 36 clubs sit in one table during the league phase, each playing eight matches against eight different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, the clubs from 9th to 24th meet in a knockout play-off, and the rest are out. Late in the phase, a side that has already qualified may rotate, while one fighting for the top eight may chase a win harder than its ratings suggest.
Champions League league phase table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WWL |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Man City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | Club Brugge | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 | Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | WDD |
| 15 | Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | LWD |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DWL |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | DLW |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Man United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LLW |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 24 | LASK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 25 | Sabah | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 | WLL |
| 28 | Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | WLL |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 | Slavia Prague | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | LLD |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 | Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
How we pick
The engine is a Dixon–Coles model of goals, explained step by step on how our predictions are made. Where bookmaker odds are in our data, the result, over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score numbers are blended half and half with the margin-free price. For goals markets across all leagues, see over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. English clubs' weekend matches are on Premier League predictions, and midweek slates appear on today's and tomorrow's pages.
Our tips across all leagues, last 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
You must be 18+ to bet. European nights produce upsets every season; any bet can lose.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code MEGAE4ZTR
Frequently asked questions
When are the UEFA Champions League predictions for Tuesday ready?
Several days before, as soon as the fixtures are in our data. They are recalculated at every refresh, so the Tuesday numbers take in the weekend's league results and the latest bookmaker prices.
How can the model compare clubs from different countries?
Through the European matches themselves. Each season, clubs from different leagues meet in UEFA competition, and those results tie the leagues' ratings together. The UEFA club cups share one scoring level and one home advantage in the model.
Are the Champions League predictions this week different from the league ones?
They come from the same model. The difference is the scoring level and home advantage, which are fitted for the UEFA cups as a group, and the opponents, who are often from leagues the clubs rarely meet.
Does a club rest players before a Champions League match?
Often in its domestic league, sometimes in the Champions League itself once it has qualified. The model cannot see rotation, so a weakened line-up is something to check yourself before you bet.
Why does a giant of European football have no tip?
Away from home against a good side, even the biggest clubs rarely reach our 55% bar for a win. And where bookmaker odds are available, the blend with the price keeps the numbers close to the market's view.