Prediction track record
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
A prediction site is only worth as much as its record, and a record is only worth something if nobody can tidy it up afterwards. This page shows how the model's tips have actually done, market by market, counted by a program rather than by us.
Last 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Last 90 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
What is logged, and when
Every tip that appears in a table on PitchMaths is written to the log before the match starts, with its market, selection and probability. At kick-off it is frozen: from that moment it cannot be changed, even if the next data refresh would have rated the match differently. A tip that drops out before kick-off, because its probability fell below the threshold, is kept in the log as withdrawn and is never counted as a win or a loss.
The log started when the site launched in October 2026. Older matches were used to fit and test the model, but they are not presented here as tips, because they were never published in advance.
How tips are settled
Settlement is automatic and uses the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time:
- a match result, goals or both-teams-to-score tip is marked won or lost from that score;
- postponed and abandoned matches are void, and so are matches decided in extra time;
- void tips are not counted at all.
Nothing is edited afterwards and losing tips are never removed.
What the headline counts
The tables above count single tips by market: match result, double chance, the over/under lines and both teams to score. Correct score, half time / full time and corners are kept out of the headline and counted on their own below, because they work so differently. Correct score lands rarely by nature; HT/FT and corners follow their own rules. Accumulators are not counted either.
Correct score tips, last 30 days
No tip of this market has been settled in this period yet.
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Half time / full time tips, last 30 days
No tip of this market has been settled in this period yet.
HT/FT tips are logged before kick-off like every other tip and settled from the half-time and final scores. They are counted here on their own, not in the site's overall record.
Corners tips, last 30 days
No tip of this market has been settled in this period yet.
Corner tips are logged before kick-off like every other tip and settled from the corner count of the 90 minutes. They are counted here on their own, not in the site's overall record.
How to read a hit rate
A hit rate means little without the probability behind it. If a market's tips average 60%, a well-calibrated model should win about 60% of them over a long run; 70% would be lucky and 50% unlucky. Comparing the hit rate with the typical probability of the tips is the fair test.
Sample size matters even more. With 20 tips at 60%, getting anything from 8 to 16 right is perfectly normal: luck alone covers that whole range. With 200 tips the band narrows a lot. So a strong first week proves nothing, and neither does a bad one. Judge the record by months and by the number of settled tips, not by a single weekend.
Variance also explains losing runs. A model that wins 60% of the time will still have stretches of five or six losses in a row now and then. That is what probability looks like in practice, and it is why staking a fixed small amount matters more than any single tip.
Coming up
The coming week is already rated, so the record keeps growing. Here is how many of those matches carry a result tip so far, and which one the model rates highest.
Wednesday 28 October – Tuesday 3 November: our model analysed 602 matches across 65 competitions and 187 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest is Young Africans v Kagera Sugar (Young Africans to win, 94%).
For how the probabilities are built, read how our predictions are made. Today's tips are on today's predictions and the next day's on tomorrow's predictions. Who keeps the record, and how the site is funded, is on about us.
Betting is for adults aged 18+. A good record does not make the next tip safe: any bet can lose.