Double chance prediction
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
Double chance lets you cover two of the three possible results with one bet. You give up some of the price in exchange for winning on a draw as well as on your team's win. This page lists the matches where the model rates a 1X or X2 cover at 80% or higher, for today and tomorrow, with fair odds next to each tip.
Wednesday 28 October: our model analysed 49 matches across 17 competitions and 14 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest is Azam v Mbeya City (Home or draw, 94%).
Double chance tips today
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | Draw or away | 94% | 1.07 | – | Pending | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | Home or draw | 93% | 1.08 | 1.02 | Pending | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | Draw or away | 89% | 1.12 | 1.02 | Pending | |
| Entebbe UPPC – MaroonsUganda Premier League | Home or draw | 83% | 1.20 | 1.07 | Pending | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | Home or draw | 94% | 1.06 | 1.02 | Pending | |
| ADT Tarma – Deportivo MoqueguaPeruvian Liga 1 | Home or draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.09 | Pending | |
| Trencin – Slovan BratislavaSlovak Super League | Draw or away | 85% | 1.18 | 1.10 | Pending | |
| Zamalek – El MokawloonEgyptian Premier League | Home or draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.18 | Pending | |
| Venezia – InterSerie A | Draw or away | 88% | 1.13 | 1.10 | Pending | |
| Coastal Union – Kagera SugarTanzanian Premier League | Home or draw | 83% | 1.20 | – | Pending | |
| Halmstads – MalmoAllsvenskan | Draw or away | 81% | 1.23 | 1.18 | Pending | |
| Celtic – Dundee UnitedScottish Premiership | Home or draw | 91% | 1.10 | 1.02 | Pending | |
| Genoa CFC – JuventusSerie A | Draw or away | 82% | 1.22 | 1.19 | Pending | |
| Forest Green Rovers – EastleighNational League | Home or draw | 81% | 1.23 | 1.10 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Double chance tips tomorrow
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A | Home or draw | 87% | 1.15 | 1.05 | Pending | |
| Once Caldas – Alianza ValleduparColombian Primera A | Home or draw | 85% | 1.17 | 1.06 | Pending | |
| Inter Miami – CincinnatiMLS | Home or draw | 84% | 1.20 | 1.17 | Pending | |
| Charlotte – MontrealMLS | Home or draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.19 | Pending | |
| Universidad Catolica Santiago – Audax ItalianoChilean Primera División | Home or draw | 82% | 1.21 | 1.10 | Pending | |
| Club Cienciano Cusco – Atletico GrauPeruvian Liga 1 | Home or draw | 86% | 1.17 | 1.03 | Pending | |
| Minnesota United – Sporting Kansas CityMLS | Home or draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.13 | Pending | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps – San DiegoMLS | Home or draw | 84% | 1.19 | 1.13 | Pending | |
| Club America – TijuanaLiga MX | Home or draw | 81% | 1.23 | 1.08 | Pending | |
| TRA United – Geita GoldTanzanian Premier League | Home or draw | 80% | 1.24 | – | Pending | |
| Modern Sport – Al AhlyEgyptian Premier League | Draw or away | 87% | 1.15 | 1.05 | Pending | |
| Pyramids – Wadi DeglaEgyptian Premier League | Home or draw | 88% | 1.13 | 1.03 | Pending | |
| KuPS – GnistanVeikkausliiga | Home or draw | 83% | 1.21 | 1.09 | Pending | |
| Al Nassr – Al KholoodSaudi Pro League | Home or draw | 93% | 1.08 | – | Pending | |
| Al-Riyadh – Al-QadisiyahSaudi Pro League | Draw or away | 91% | 1.10 | 1.03 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
How a double chance bet wins and loses
- 1X wins on a home win or a draw. It loses only if the away team wins.
- X2 wins on a draw or an away win. It loses only if the home team wins.
- 12 wins if either side wins. It loses only on a draw.
As with the match result, the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time decides it. Extra time and penalties do not count.
Where the percentages come from
The model works out the chance of every scoreline, then sums them into home win, draw and away win. Where the bookmaker's odds for the match result are in our data, those three numbers are blended half and half with the price after removing the margin. The double chance figures are simply pairs of the blended numbers: home plus draw for 1X, draw plus away for X2. There is no separate double chance model, so the same blend reaches this market through the match result.
The threshold
A match gets a tip when the stronger of 1X and X2 reaches 80%. We never tip 12. Matches with a team that has fewer than eight games in our data get no tip.
An 80% bar means a well-calibrated set of tips should still lose about one bet in five. Some days a whole round of 85% tips goes through; other days two or three lose at once. Neither tells you much on its own.
Short prices and fair odds
Fair odds equal 1 ÷ probability. At 80% that is 1.25; at 90% it is about 1.11. Bookmakers often price double chance close to those figures or below them, because the margin bites hardest on short prices.
Check the bookmaker's price in the table against the fair figure. If the model says 84% (fair price 1.19) and the price offered is 1.14, the bet pays less than its risk, however comfortable the percentage looks. That is a reason to skip it, not to stake more.
When double chance makes sense
Double chance suits a team you rate higher than the market does but that might be held to a draw, such as a decent away side at a tough ground. It is less useful on a heavy favourite, where 1X barely moves from the plain home win and the price is tiny.
If you want the draw to give your money back rather than win, draw no bet is the alternative: a better price, with a refund instead of a payout on the X. For matches the model sees as genuinely balanced, the draw predictions page lists the X on its own.
What the model cannot see
The ratings come from scores only. They miss injuries, suspensions, rotation before a bigger match, and the motivation of a side that has nothing left to play for. A team at 85% for 1X can still lose to a late goal against ten men. Look at the team news before you bet, especially on short prices.
How we pick
A Dixon–Coles model fits every team's attack and defence on roughly three seasons of results, with recent matches weighted more. Each competition has its own scoring level and home advantage. The full method is on how our predictions are made, and the straight home, draw and away tips are on 1X2 tips. To see what several double chance legs pay together, use the accumulator calculator.
How our tips did in the last 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
You must be 18+ to bet. An 80% tip still loses one time in five; any bet can lose.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code MEGAE4ZTR
Frequently asked questions
What do 1X, X2 and 12 mean?
They are the three double chance bets. 1X wins if the home team wins or the match is drawn. X2 wins on a draw or an away win. 12 wins if either team wins and loses only on a draw. Each covers two of the three results.
Why do you never tip 12?
Our rule is to tip only the stronger of 1X and X2, the side of the match that the model favours plus the draw. A 12 bet is a bet against the draw, which is a different idea and seldom reaches our 80% bar.
Is double chance a safe bet?
It lands more often than a straight win, but it is not safe. An 85% tip still loses about three times in twenty, and because the odds are short, one loss can cancel several wins. Any bet can lose.
How are the double chance predictions worked out?
From the match result numbers. The model's home, draw and away chances, blended with the bookmaker's margin-free price where odds are in our data, are added in pairs: home plus draw for 1X, draw plus away for X2.
Should I put double chance tips in an accumulator?
Many bettors do, because each leg is rated high. Remember that the chances multiply: three 85% legs together land only about 61% of the time, and the short prices add up to less than it seems.