Mathematical football predictions
PitchMaths editorial team · Updated
PitchMaths publishes football predictions worked out by a statistical model, not by gut feeling or by who shouts loudest. For every rated match the model calculates the chance of each possible scoreline and adds those chances up into the markets you actually bet on: home win, draw or away win, over and under goals, both teams to score and the correct score. A tip is printed only when a probability clears a fixed bar, and it goes into the public record before the match starts.
Wednesday 28 October: our model analysed 49 matches across 17 competitions and 15 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest is Azam v Mbeya City (Azam to win, 77%).
Today's strongest tips
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandari – Posta RangersKenyan Premier League | Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | 1.38 | Pending | |
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | Simba to win | 77% | 1.29 | – | Pending | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | Kampala City to win | 71% | 1.41 | 1.26 | Pending | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | Vipers to win | 65% | 1.54 | 1.40 | Pending | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | Azam to win | 77% | 1.29 | 1.18 | Pending | |
| Kosice – DACSlovak Super League | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | 1.39 | Pending | |
| Venezia – InterSerie A | Inter to win | 71% | 1.40 | 1.39 | Pending | |
| Celtic – Dundee UnitedScottish Premiership | Celtic to win | 76% | 1.32 | 1.23 | Pending |
Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Who PitchMaths is for
The site is written for football fans in Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana and Zambia who place their bets on a phone and would rather see a percentage than a promise. The tables cover more than 70 competitions: the big European leagues and cups, second divisions, and African football including the NPFL, the Ghana Premier League, the Uganda Premier League, the Kenyan Premier League, the Tanzanian Premier League, the Zambia Super League, the South African Premiership and the CAF club competitions.
Kick-off times are printed in East Africa Time (EAT) and your browser switches them to your own clock. If you read from Lagos or Abuja, West Africa Time is two hours behind EAT; Accra is three hours behind.
Pick a market
Each page below handles one kind of bet, with today's tips first and an explanation of how that market wins and loses underneath.
Today
Today's match result, goals and BTTS tips from the model, sorted by kick-off.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's fixtures rated in advance, with the tips that already clear our thresholds.
Weekend
Saturday and Sunday in one place: match result tips, a 5-odds slip and likely scores.
1X2 tips
Home win, draw or away win: the match result tips with their probabilities.
Draw tips
Evenly matched games where the model rates the draw at 31% or more.
Over/under goals
Over and under 2.5 goals, over 1.5 and under 3.5 tips with calibrated chances.
Double chance
1X and X2 tips that the model rates at 80% or more, with fair odds.
BTTS / GG
GG and NG tips for today and tomorrow, with calibrated probabilities.
Correct score
The likeliest scorelines for every rated match, each with its real chance.
HT/FT
The nine half time/full time outcomes for every match, with a tip when one reaches 40%.
Mega Jackpot
Every match on the current Mega Jackpot list with 1/X/2 chances, a pick and a double.
What the numbers are and what they are not
Behind every table sits a Dixon–Coles model, a refined version of the Poisson method that statisticians have used on football scores for decades. Each team carries an attack rating and a defence rating, each competition its own scoring level and home advantage, and recent matches count for more than old ones. Where the bookmaker's odds are in our data, the result, over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score numbers are blended half and half with the price.
The model reads scores and nothing else. It does not know who is injured, who is suspended, which coach is resting players before a cup tie or how heavy the pitch will be after rain. Treat a probability as a starting point and check the team news yourself. The full method, including how the goals numbers are calibrated and where the model is weakest, is on how our predictions are made.
Fair odds in the tables are simply 1 divided by the probability. If the model gives a home win 50%, its fair price is 2.00; a bookmaker offering 2.30 is paying more than the model thinks the bet is worth, and one offering 1.70 is paying less.
Today's matches in numbers
| Kick-off | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | GG | xG | Likely score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors – Independiente RivadaviaArgentine Liga Profesional1-0 | 50% | 28% | 22% | 44% | 49% | 1.6 – 0.9 | 1-0 13% | |
| Ceara – Goias Esporte ClubeBrasileirão Série B0-2 | 41% | 30% | 28% | 44% | 51% | 1.0 – 0.9 | 0-0 16% | |
| Cucuta Deportivo – Aguilas DoradasColombian Primera A0-2 | 35% | 29% | 36% | 48% | 53% | 1.4 – 1.3 | 1-1 13% | |
| Boyaca Chico – Junior de BarranquillaColombian Primera A1-1 | 29% | 28% | 44% | 46% | 51% | 0.9 – 1.5 | 0-1 13% | |
| Kakamega Homeboyz – Gor MahiaKenyan Premier League | 29% | 31% | 40% | 40% | 47% | 1.0 – 1.2 | 1-1 14% | |
| Bandari – Posta RangersKenyan Premier League | 42% | 34% | 24% | 33% | 42% | 0.9 – 0.6 | 0-0 21% | |
| KCB – Mombasa UnitedKenyan Premier League | 45% | 32% | 23% | 35% | 42% | 0.9 – 0.7 | 0-0 20% | |
| APS Bomet – 3KKenyan Premier League | 34% | 33% | 33% | 38% | 46% | 1.1 – 1.0 | 1-1 14% | |
| Murang'a Seal – Nairobi UnitedKenyan Premier League | 32% | 28% | 39% | 48% | 53% | 1.2 – 1.4 | 1-1 13% | |
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | 6% | 17% | 77% | 51% | 44% | 0.5 – 2.2 | 0-2 17% | |
| Entebbe UPPC – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 53% | 31% | 17% | 36% | 41% | 1.1 – 0.5 | 1-0 21% | |
| Kitara – BULUganda Premier League | 48% | 29% | 23% | 44% | 49% | 1.4 – 0.8 | 1-0 14% | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | 11% | 24% | 65% | 43% | 42% | 0.5 – 1.6 | 0-1 20% | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 71% | 22% | 7% | 45% | 38% | 1.7 – 0.4 | 1-0 21% | |
| Roan United – ZESCO UnitedZambia Super League | 31% | 32% | 38% | 37% | 44% | 1.0 – 0.8 | 0-0 16% | |
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | 29% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 44% | 0.7 – 1.0 | 0-0 19% | |
| National Bank of Egypt – Al MasryEgyptian Premier League | 33% | 29% | 38% | 47% | 52% | 1.1 – 1.4 | 1-1 13% | |
| Radnicki – Zeleznicar PancevoSerbian SuperLiga | 37% | 29% | 33% | 47% | 53% | 1.0 – 1.1 | 1-1 14% | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | 77% | 17% | 6% | 50% | 38% | 2.2 – 0.4 | 2-0 18% | |
| Oulu – Vaasan PalloseuraVeikkausliiga | 40% | 28% | 32% | 50% | 54% | 1.3 – 1.1 | 1-1 13% | |
| ADT Tarma – Deportivo MoqueguaPeruvian Liga 1 | 57% | 26% | 17% | 47% | 48% | 1.3 – 0.7 | 1-0 17% | |
| Radnicki Nis – PartizanSerbian SuperLiga | 25% | 25% | 51% | 56% | 57% | 1.2 – 1.7 | 1-1 12% | |
| Zamalek – El MokawloonEgyptian Premier League | 48% | 33% | 20% | 36% | 43% | 1.1 – 0.5 | 1-0 21% | |
| Trencin – Slovan BratislavaSlovak Super League | 15% | 20% | 65% | 60% | 56% | 0.9 – 2.2 | 0-2 11% | |
| Kosice – DACSlovak Super League | 21% | 20% | 59% | 68% | 64% | 1.4 – 2.9 | 1-2 8% | |
| AC Milan – BolognaSerie A | 51% | 27% | 22% | 47% | 50% | 1.4 – 1.0 | 1-1 13% | |
| Venezia – InterSerie A | 12% | 17% | 71% | 65% | 57% | 0.9 – 2.5 | 0-2 10% | |
| Parma – UdineseSerie A | 32% | 31% | 37% | 43% | 50% | 0.9 – 1.1 | 1-1 14% | |
| Pisa – PalermoSerie B | 34% | 27% | 38% | 55% | 58% | 1.3 – 1.6 | 1-1 12% | |
| Degerfors – Vasteras SKAllsvenskan | 30% | 27% | 43% | 49% | 54% | 1.0 – 1.5 | 1-1 13% |
Most likely correct scores today
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors – Independiente RivadaviaArgentine Liga Profesional | 1-0 (13.3%)1-1 12.4% · 2-0 10.8% | 1.6 – 0.9 | 1-0 | |
| Ceara – Goias Esporte ClubeBrasileirão Série B | 0-0 (15.5%)1-0 14.8% · 1-1 14.0% | 1.0 – 0.9 | 0-2 | |
| Cucuta Deportivo – Aguilas DoradasColombian Primera A | 1-1 (12.8%)1-0 8.8% · 0-1 8.5% | 1.4 – 1.3 | 0-2 | |
| Boyaca Chico – Junior de BarranquillaColombian Primera A | 0-1 (13.0%)1-1 12.5% · 0-2 10.4% | 0.9 – 1.5 | 1-1 | |
| Kakamega Homeboyz – Gor MahiaKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (13.7%)0-1 12.6% · 0-0 11.1% | 1.0 – 1.2 | – | |
| Bandari – Posta RangersKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (21.4%)1-0 19.1% · 1-1 12.8% | 0.9 – 0.6 | – | |
| KCB – Mombasa UnitedKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (20.1%)1-0 16.9% · 0-1 14.0% | 0.9 – 0.7 | – | |
| APS Bomet – 3KKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (14.0%)0-0 13.6% · 1-0 13.5% | 1.1 – 1.0 | – | |
| Murang'a Seal – Nairobi UnitedKenyan Premier League | 1-1 (12.9%)0-1 9.5% · 1-2 8.6% | 1.2 – 1.4 | – | |
| Singida Fountain Gate – SimbaTanzanian Premier League | 0-2 (16.8%)0-1 14.9% · 0-3 12.4% | 0.5 – 2.2 | – | |
| Entebbe UPPC – MaroonsUganda Premier League | 1-0 (21.3%)0-0 20.1% · 2-0 12.1% | 1.1 – 0.5 | – | |
| Kitara – BULUganda Premier League | 1-0 (14.4%)1-1 13.2% · 0-0 11.5% | 1.4 – 0.8 | – | |
| Mbarara City – VipersUganda Premier League | 0-1 (19.8%)0-2 16.2% · 0-0 12.9% | 0.5 – 1.6 | – | |
| Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 1-0 (20.8%)2-0 17.9% · 0-0 12.8% | 1.7 – 0.4 | – | |
| Roan United – ZESCO UnitedZambia Super League | 0-0 (15.9%)1-0 15.2% · 1-1 13.9% | 1.0 – 0.8 | – | |
| Mara Sugar – LeopardsKenyan Premier League | 0-0 (19.3%)0-1 17.5% · 1-1 13.4% | 0.7 – 1.0 | – | |
| National Bank of Egypt – Al MasryEgyptian Premier League | 1-1 (13.2%)0-1 10.8% · 1-0 8.8% | 1.1 – 1.4 | – | |
| Radnicki – Zeleznicar PancevoSerbian SuperLiga | 1-1 (14.1%)0-0 13.2% · 0-1 12.8% | 1.0 – 1.1 | – | |
| Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | 2-0 (18.4%)1-0 16.8% · 3-0 13.3% | 2.2 – 0.4 | – | |
| Oulu – Vaasan PalloseuraVeikkausliiga | 1-1 (13.4%)1-0 11.6% · 0-0 9.6% | 1.3 – 1.1 | – | |
| ADT Tarma – Deportivo MoqueguaPeruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 (17.4%)0-0 14.2% · 1-1 12.7% | 1.3 – 0.7 | – | |
| Radnicki Nis – PartizanSerbian SuperLiga | 1-1 (11.7%)1-2 9.6% · 0-1 9.2% | 1.2 – 1.7 | – | |
| Zamalek – El MokawloonEgyptian Premier League | 1-0 (21.1%)0-0 19.2% · 2-0 12.4% | 1.1 – 0.5 | – | |
| Trencin – Slovan BratislavaSlovak Super League | 0-2 (10.6%)1-2 9.9% · 1-1 9.5% | 0.9 – 2.2 | – | |
| Kosice – DACSlovak Super League | 1-2 (7.9%)1-3 7.6% · 2-2 5.7% | 1.4 – 2.9 | – | |
| AC Milan – BolognaSerie A | 1-1 (13.1%)1-0 12.5% · 0-0 9.7% | 1.4 – 1.0 | – | |
| Venezia – InterSerie A | 0-2 (10.2%)1-2 9.4% · 0-3 8.5% | 0.9 – 2.5 | – | |
| Parma – UdineseSerie A | 1-1 (13.9%)0-1 13.7% · 0-0 13.2% | 0.9 – 1.1 | – | |
| Pisa – PalermoSerie B | 1-1 (12.0%)1-2 9.2% · 0-1 8.7% | 1.3 – 1.6 | – | |
| Degerfors – Vasteras SKAllsvenskan | 1-1 (12.9%)0-1 11.8% · 1-2 9.2% | 1.0 – 1.5 | – |
Every tip is kept in public
A tip is logged before kick-off, frozen once the match starts and settled automatically from the score after 90 minutes. Nothing is deleted when it loses. The log began in October 2026, so for the first weeks the totals rest on a small number of tips and will swing a lot; the track record page explains how to read them.
Our record over the last 30 days
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Bet only with money you can spare
Betting is for adults aged 18+ and for fun, not for income. Even the strongest tip on this page can lose, and a losing day says nothing about whether tomorrow will be better. Set a budget before you open the betting app and keep to it; the responsible gambling page has practical limits and free support.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code MEGAE4ZTR
Frequently asked questions
What is a mathematical prediction in football?
It is a forecast that comes from a formula instead of an opinion. Our model rates every team's attack and defence from past scores, works out how likely each scoreline is, and turns those chances into percentages for the usual betting markets. The same inputs always give the same output, and nobody adjusts a number because of a hunch.
Where can I find all the mathematical predictions for today?
On this page: the table of every match today lists the home, draw and away chances, over 2.5, both teams to score, expected goals and the likeliest score. The today page then sorts the tips by market.
Do you publish mathematical predictions for tomorrow?
Yes. The model rates the next day's fixtures as soon as they are in our data, and the tomorrow page shows them. Numbers can still move before kick-off when new results come in or bookmaker prices change.
Are mathematical betting tips always right?
No. A 70% tip should lose about three times in ten, and a run of losses can happen to any honest model. What maths gives you is a fair price for each outcome and a record you can check, not certainty. Any bet can lose.
Which leagues get predictions?
More than 70 competitions, from the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 to the NPFL, the Ghana Premier League, the Uganda Premier League, the Tanzanian Premier League, the Kenyan Premier League, the South African Premiership, the Zambia Super League and the CAF club cups.