Betting tips 1X2

The 1X2 market is the oldest bet in football: home win, draw or away win. It is also where most bettors start, and where a clear method helps most, because a big name on the team sheet often hides how close a match really is. This page lists the model's match result tips for today and tomorrow, each with its probability, fair odds and, where available, the bookmaker's price.

Wednesday 28 October: our model analysed 49 matches across 17 competitions and 15 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest is Azam v Mbeya City (Azam to win, 77%).

1X2 tips today

Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

1X2 tips tomorrow

Odds: Megapari, as of 28 October 2026, 12:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

How a 1X2 bet is settled

The result counts after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A cup tie that goes to extra time is settled as a draw in the 1X2 market, even if one side wins later on penalties. Our own record follows a stricter rule: tips on matches decided in extra time are voided and not counted, along with postponed and abandoned matches.

From scorelines to home, draw and away

The model does not guess the result directly. It works out the chance of every possible scoreline, then adds them up. All scores where the home side has more goals make up the home win probability; all level scores make up the draw; the rest is the away win. The three always add up to 100%.

Where the bookmaker's odds are in our data, that probability is mixed half and half with the price after the margin has been taken out. The market knows things the model cannot, such as team news; the model is not swayed by a club's popularity. Where odds are missing, typically in smaller leagues that open their markets a day or two ahead, the number is the model's own.

When a match gets a tip

• Home or away win: the favourite needs at least 55%.
• Draw: at least 31%, and only when home and away are within 12 points of each other.
• No tip: everything else, which on most days is the majority of matches.
• No data: teams with fewer than eight matches in our records get no tip at all.

A match with 48% home, 27% draw and 25% away has a clear favourite but no tip: 48% is not enough.

Probability, fair odds and value

Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability. A 58% home win is worth about 1.72 to the model. If the bookmaker pays 1.95, the bet pays more than its estimated risk; at 1.55 it pays less. Big favourites are where this matters most: a 75% tip has fair odds of 1.33, and a price of 1.20 leaves little reason to bet it as a single.

What can turn a result

• Squad news. Suspensions, injuries and rotation are invisible to the model.
• Motivation. A team that has already won the league or has nothing left to play for may not show up the way its ratings expect.
• Home advantage. The model measures it per competition, but a derby, a neutral venue or a long trip in African club football can change it.
• Congestion. A side playing its third match in a week, or about to play a bigger match in midweek, often rests key players.

How we pick

A Dixon–Coles model rates each team's attack and defence from about three seasons of scores, with recent matches weighted more heavily. Each league has its own scoring level and home advantage. The step-by-step version, with the model's weak spots, is on how our predictions are made.

For the other big markets of the day, go to today's predictions, over 2.5 goals or both teams to score. The next day's slate is on tomorrow's predictions.

1X2 and other markets: last 30 days

Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.

You must be 18+ to bet. A favourite at 70% still loses three times in ten; any bet can lose.